Big price increases coming in near future

Stokdgs said:
dgage - thanks for the explanation, I learned a lot about this..

Now, regarding Disaster Recovery, which I happen to know a lot about, do these people with pipelines not know how to address their pipeline operation in the event of say, massive electrical grid failure??? No one, well, actually teams of people can not go out to Their part of the pipeline and Manually operate it???

It still is a pipeline, right?? People operated pipelines and dam gates for over 100 years without the internet, can we not just go turn the dang valves to open and let that product go through them?? It still is a pipeline, right ?

If there is no solution to this, I am just amazed how this entire pipeline infrastructure ever got built without 1 person thinking, "hey, shouldn`t we remember how to operate this Manually, in the event of a power failure ????(long before the internet was invented) No one thought about that??? Ever???

Thinking about the Internet access, does using only VPN not work anymore??? We were using VPN`s at Verizon over 20 years ago.. We never got hacked either..
Or, cannot the IT team just limit access to only certain things coming And going, to help slow down those pesky little evil bugs that come in with something that looks normal but isn`t?? There are no Firewalls that really are Firewalls??

No one today can write a little program that flags things that go out, or come in, that are on a list of dangerous places to be, and block them before they do damage?

Our people at Verizon put limits on access to things for everyone... You were just not going to get to go to that place... It was dangerous... We even had the first design of Lotus Notes, long before Microsoft Outlook came out with their beautiful email version, in the middle 90`s..

Ok, I have to go outside, this is making me crazy.. :)

Thanks again for your time and help, dgage !
Dan F
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I completely agree with every doubt you have! Ill say it much shorter and sweeter. I THINK ITS BS and they do have those safeties in place THEY ARE JUST FULL OF CRAP AND TRYING TO MAKE THE US PANIC WHEN THEY RAISE PRICES. Thats all I have to say on that
 
dgage said:
The issue is related to valves and instrumentation. Their valves usually have on them something called a PLC or Programmable Logic Controller. This is how most industries have controlled their industrial components for decades. Now think of the proliferation of smart locks, thermostats, lights, etc, etc in the home, which is often referred to as the Internet of Things (IoT). Well where do you think security was when all these companies, and there were a ton, were trying to quickly enter the IoT market? Well, unfortunately about the same thing happened on the industrial side where they started hooking up these PLCs to the network or Internet. Not enough thought put into security and that is why we have pipelines and electrical grids vulnerable to hacking. And they will be for a while until they can properly add security, which includes training people to stop being a contributor to the problem, such as clicking on something they shouldn’t or giving/improperly storing information they shouldn’t.
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I clicked the dislike by mistake.
 
Well, enough about economics, politics, and cyber attacks/hacks, BACK to the topic about price increases on detailing and car-care products.:
I asked this question during the pandemic:
Have any of you experienced product shortages or unavailability of detailing equipment or products in orders you recently places through car-care equipment and product re-sellers/distributors/dealers, whether over-the-counter or through the Internet?
AND, how has that affected your vehicle detailing business or hobby??

I want to give my sincere "Thanks" to Ron Ketcham for his heads-up information on this price increase. I know Ron has a lot of acquaintances and associates in the car-care manufacturing sector that he has made in working within that sector over the years. I trust his information because he trusts his sources and this is not some "fake news" item to get us Autopians to panic and stock up on car-care products and and related items.

Although this information does not bode well for me personally because I NEED to buy my "large every-other-year stash" of car-care products that I am totally out of and have procrastinated about ordering to continue my vehicle OCD detailing hobby.
Another title for Captain Obvious: Procrastinator! I know, "Time is of the essence." "The early bird gets the worm." "Put off today what you can do tomorrow" Wait (pun intended!), how did that last one get in here? Oh ya, that`s MY saying.
 
Regarding inflation rates, we haven`t had a yearly average inflation rate over 10% since 1981, and it`s never been above 5% since 1982, except in 1990, when it was 5.4. Since 2000 it`s never been above 4%, and was even negative in 2009. So...after we got over the crushing inflation of the late 70`s (13.5% in 1980), inflation has been pretty stable and low, through a lot of different administrations and policies. IMO what we`re seeing now is supply/demand issues related to the pandemic. https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

As far as the pipeline, are we sure that it was actually the automation that was sabotaged? I see a lot of speculation here that the operator was unable to operate the system, but I have heard no evidence of that. Is it possible the operator was afraid to operate it (as opposed to being unable to operate it) for fear that malicious software had been installed which would provided false feedback to the system operators? Remember in the Stuxnet attack on the Iranian centrifuges, the centrifuges were overspeeded while their instruments showed the RPM within normal parameters. Perhaps in this case the pipeline operator was afraid they would press the button and everything would look normal on their screens, while in reality a dump valve was open somewhere pumping into someone`s back yard. Remember this pipeline is 1500 miles long and probably took many years to build and troubleshoot.
 
bob m said:
Cyberattacks on the USA infrastructure. Is that really so prescient? A blind man could see this coming from years ago. Ted Koppel had a book out in 2015 called Lights Out, about just such a thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ngkt6PVvc04

Yes, I`m sure he was not the first, but I am also pretty sure we have not taken this threat seriously enough. We seem not to heed the warnings we should be heeding.
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I`ve worked in the government IT space for over 20 years in various capacities and the idea of cyber attacks against critical infrastructure has been a topic of concern in some corners of government and industry the entire time. It`s only hit the public`s attention because the attack directly effected millions of private citizens across a dozen states. Even ransomware isn`t anything new. It`s been a threat vector for almost a decade.

bob m said:
And I don`t think WE are the only country ill prepared.
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Agree, but I don`t know if there are any easy answers. The problem is pretty complex at many levels and there is always the human element of complacency or error.

The best defense is companies taking their IT security seriously and investing on both the infrastructure and training. This latest attack started with a compromised password from an inactive account that should`ve been deleted on a network that didn`t utilize two-factor authentication. Who knows what other measures were not implemented which could have isolated the attack and limited it`s spread.

I don`t know who said this the first time, but I love the quote: "There are only two types of networks. Those which have been hacked and those which will be hacked again"
 
I used to work for Microsoft. You’d be surprised how many places are hacked and the organizations/companies don’t even realize it for months, even years later.

I own a home theater subwoofer business and plywood prices have doubled and I can no longer get the top quality Baltic Birch plywood. Amplifier and subwoofer driver prices have gone up over 30%. My amplifier lead times have gone from 3-4 weeks to 3 months. I’m not sure I’ll be able to get enough subwoofer drivers to have good sales.

And my subwoofer business comments are related to auto detailing as we’ve done several subs with gloss lacquer where we wet sand and then polish with a Flex CBeast to get a mirrored shine. When we finish our current 2 custom subs I’ll post up some pictures.
 
Desertnate said:
I`ve worked in the government IT space for over 20 years in various capacities and the idea of cyber attacks against critical infrastructure has beena topic of concern in some corners of government and industry the entire time. It`s only hit the public`s attention because the attack directly effected millions of private citizens across a dozen states. Even ransomware isn`t anything new. It`s been a threat vector for almost a decade.



Agree, but I don`t know if there are any easy answers. The problem is pretty complex at many levels and there is always the human element of complacency or error.

The best defense is companies taking their IT security seriously and investing on both the infrastructure and training. This latest attack started with a compromised password from an inactive account that should`ve been deleted on a network that didn`t utilize two-factor authentication. Who knows what other measures were not implemented which could have isolated the attack and limited it`s spread.

I don`t know who said this the first time, but I love the quote: "There are only two types of networks. Those which have been hacked and those which will be hacked again"
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We are in basic agreement, but this should have been taken more seriously years ago.And this is from a guy (me) who is the most tech challenged guy around. But like most things that ain`t sexy, doesn`t get the concern until something happens. About 15 years ago, as a Respiratory Therapist I assisted an MD with a bronchoscopy on a non-intubated patient. Because the MD was in a rush, I didn`t have time to place an oral airway (which prevents the patient from biting down on the scope`s tube) and sooooooo, this patient did bite down and damaged the scope. My understanding was that it was a could have been a couple of grand to fix it. The ICU Attending obviously wasn`t too happy with me - to say the least, and said that the damage done to the scope by not using that airway "was a predictable event." Same thing with not adequately guarding against these cyberattacks and ransomware; only this time, it`s not just predictable, but a certainty - as you mention.

Of course it`s not easy, but the less we do, the more we are all at risk. And it`s not just the Texas pipeline; apparently there have been many ransomware attacks on smaller levels. And of course penalties have to be stiff. The better prepared we are, the lesser the disturbances.
 
Lonnie said:
Does anyone know if this 2021 February`s Texas Polar Vortex disaster is still affecting petroleum refining and gas production in that state and hence supply?? The Colonial Pipeline ransomware hack opened some eyes about the vulnerability of all of our gasoline supply line distribution and infrastructure.
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Yes it did, these refining facility`s had so much damaged done to them we at my company and alot of other around the country can`t get our/their raw materials process until they get repair, plus alot of their workers had their home damaged too.
 
bob m said:
Of course it`s not easy, but the less we do, the more we are all at risk. And it`s not just the Texas pipeline; apparently there have been many ransomware attacks on smaller levels. And of course penalties have to be stiff. The better prepared we are, the lesser the disturbances.
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My county offices were shut down last week in a ransomware attack. Fortunately, they recovered pretty quickly.

Penalties can be as stiff as we can make them, but attribution to specific individuals is often impossible, regardless of the type of attack. When the actors are scattered around the world using freely available tools it makes things even harder to hold individuals responsible. There is a shadowy world of "cat and mouse" involved with trying to hunt down those involved on both the corporate and government side.

The good companies have hardened their networks, are active in their defense and have built out resilient networks managed by competent professionals. Then there are those who don`t properly resource or secure their networks and end up getting locked out of their own data or lose hard-earned intellectual property. Even the good ones are occasionally compromised.

Could we legislate standards for critical infrastructure industries? Probably, but I don`t think the technical competence exists at the national-level to create the meaningful legislation, and I don`t know if there is the political will to even tackle a problem like that. Its a slippery slope. Then there is the fact the technology evolves so fast no one can keep up.
 
I HAVE to bump this thread discussion about car-care product increases only because there are a number of factors/reasons why this is happening at the current time. Some are a USA-government democracy in action, some are uncontrolled, like the Texas Polar Vortex or the COVID-19 Pandemic, and some the way businesses and economies are run today with computer/AI/program technology, world-sourced material supplies, and just-in-time deliveries. And as an engineering supervisor I once worked for said, "Anyone can identify a problem. I`m looking for workable solutions and answers to those problems!" The key word in that statement is "Workable" and that took on a host of characteristics from being able to be implemented, to being cost-effective, to not creating other new problems than what it solves.

While my concern is the price of car-care products themselves, a MUCH bigger concern is the short-term availability, or more correctly the lack thereof, of such products and its effects/impact on both the professional detailer and their personal economic livelihood and customer business and myself as a detailing hobbyist. It is one thing to pay a higher price for a car-care product; it is something else not to be able to get that product at all at ANY price.

Those of you in manufacturing are well aware these factors and its impact on your business and job. Long lead-times and shortages on critical parts needed for repair or maintenance of production machinery or raw materials to product the end-product on such machines have a `domino effect" on everyone wherever that end-product is bought and/or used, and hence, this world-wide economic inter-dependency.

It`s easy to say, "We are all in this together." But as stated above by my engineering supervisor, I`m looking for workable solutions, and right now, from my perspective, our "solutions and answers" have created more problems.
Will it get better?
The self-reflective answer to that question is, "Am I part of the problem or am I part of the solution?"

(Geeze, Captain Obvious, for someone who wants to keep this forum "detailing centric", you`re saying a lot about "things" other than detailing. No wonder the admins ban this stuff. Just saying`..... )
 
Good points. I read an article not long questioning whether the current world situation would bring an end to the whole "just-in-time" supply chain model used for just about every industry. Companies are apparently starting to look at warehousing and stockpiling of vital components/materials to provide a buffer to keep them going in times of a supply-chain disruption.

One of the biggest ironies of the piece was a comment that Japanese automaker (I *think* Toyota) has managed to fair the global chip shortage better than some because they started to stockpile supplies early in the pandemic...yet they were on leading edge of the whole just in time business model.

Wish I could find the story again and link it here....
 
Desertnate said:
Good points. I read an article not long questioning whether the current world situation would bring an end to the whole "just-in-time" supply chain model used for just about every industry. Companies are apparently starting to look at warehousing and stockpiling of vital components/materials to provide a buffer to keep them going in times of a supply-chain disruption.
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This was one of the most shortsighted policies...but just another facet of a world driven by quarterly results and bonuses etc., instead of actual fundamentals. The result of a transition of corporate management from entrepreneurs and technical people to finance and business-school people. I think the most (in)famous example of this was when the CEO of GM was explaining his hiring of Bob Lutz as a "product guru". He explained that he wasn`t really a "car guy". I remember the top of my head blowing off thinking "DON`T YOU HAVE TO BE A CAR GUY TO BE THE CEO OF A CAR COMPANY!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?"

Of course, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong.
 
Desertnate said:
One of the biggest ironies of the piece was a comment that Japanese automaker (I *think* Toyota) has managed to fair the global chip shortage better than some because they started to stockpile supplies early in the pandemic...yet they were on leading edge of the whole just in time business model.
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I have an undergrad and masters degree in Industrial Engineering. There was considerable class time devoted to studying Toyota’s contribution to Just in Time manufacturing. Interesting to see them transition so quickly.
 
Setec Astronomy said:
This was one of the most shortsighted policies...but just another facet of a world driven by quarterly results and bonuses etc., instead of actual fundamentals. The result of a transition of corporate management from entrepreneurs and technical people to finance and business-school people. I think the most (in)famous example of this was when the CEO of GM was explaining his hiring of Bob Lutz as a "product guru". He explained that he wasn`t really a "car guy". I remember the top of my head blowing off thinking "DON`T YOU HAVE TO BE A CAR GUY TO BE THE CEO OF A CAR COMPANY!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?"

Of course, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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Well for my home theater subwoofer business, my amplifiers went from a 3-4 week lead time to at least 3 months at this point, which is a significant amount of money that is now parked in inventory. A similar story on the drivers, which are my two largest costs and now I have to triple and even quadruple inventory costs because of it and that assumes I’ll even be able to get the equipment. Throw in plywood costs have doubled and I can’t get it reliably because other companies are also trying to stockpile (think gas shortage of a month ago). So business will need to change SIGNIFICANTLY to weather the next year.
 
Setec Astronomy said:
This was one of the most shortsighted policies...but just another facet of a world driven by quarterly results and bonuses etc., instead of actual fundamentals. The result of a transition of corporate management from entrepreneurs and technical people to finance and business-school people. I think the most (in)famous example of this was when the CEO of GM was explaining his hiring of Bob Lutz as a "product guru". He explained that he wasn`t really a "car guy". I remember the top of my head blowing off thinking "DON`T YOU HAVE TO BE A CAR GUY TO BE THE CEO OF A CAR COMPANY!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?!?!?"

Of course, this is just my opinion, I could be wrong.
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So very true. I remember be in some business elective while getting my computer science degree and being baffled buy the incredible risks taken with just in time manufacturing. Of course I`m a glass half-empty sort of person too...

Baffled by the "car guy" comments too... So many rants I could start with just those comments. I`m in total agreement with you.

dgage said:
I have an undergrad and masters degree in Industrial Engineering. There was considerable class time devoted to studying Toyota’s contribution to Just in Time manufacturing. Interesting to see them transition so quickly.
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I found the article I remember reading about Toyota. It isn`t the one about the problems of just-in-time manufacturing in the current environment, but was actually a completely different one focused on the chip shortage. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ply-chain-helped-it-weather-the-chip-shortage
 
Thanks for the reminder Lonnie, i think i will get some bulk items the over the rest of the year. Something as to give eventually IMO.

If this comes to fruition professional detailers would have to jack their prices, not good.
 
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