I suspect that nobody wants to go out on a limb with predictions about "waterspots" and "clearcoat thickness" because it's just fraught with downside potential.
And VW paint is tricky to predict anyhow...some people say it's as hard as an Audi's and others say it's really soft
Some spots clear out pretty easily, but stuff like acid rain etching or even some really nasty "waterspotting" from other causes can be incredibly hard to get rid of. A PC is usually outmatched, you're looking at rotary work with an aggressive compound.
AutoInt's ValueGuard Paint Correction Creme is made for jobs like this. Rotary only, it takes off *so* much clear that you have to think twice about further polishing for the rest of the vehicle's life, as in *forever*. It can take that much correction to get rid of water-related etching.
I'm with Tom P. This is something it's usually best to live with. I know that's a pretty unsatisfying response, but I'd hate for you you spend forever with the PC and have nothing to show for it or, worse yet, take off too much clear and end up having paintwork done (which might look even worse).
See if a reasonable attempt with the PC and your most aggressive product helps it. Maybe try a 4" pad but be careful if you do that. With the sort of mild products you mentioned (neither of which I've tried) I'd expect many, many passes to make even a slight improvement. Some of us have spent hours per panel with the PC and still only achieved moderate correction.